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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was evacuated from her Denver hotel after a man tried to check in with weapons.

Gone are the days when only the right howled about bias and malice from network anchors and star political reporters -- now the left is pushing back.

With the Democratic convention opening tomorrow, and just over two months left until Election Day, it seems to be a good time to take stock of the current Senate races around the country, and provide a baseline for what to expect as the general-election campaigns begin in earnest. If the election were held today, Democrats would win five Republican-held seats, in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, New Hampshire and Colorado. They would also hold the only two Democratic-held seats considered even slightly vulnerable, in Louisiana and New Jersey. This would give the Democratic Party a total of  56 Senate seats controlled, including Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman. Following is a breakdown of each competitive race at the moment, ranked according to Democratic chances in the state, and rated on the conventional scale of "Safe Democratic" to "Safe Republican". Safe Democratic Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana: No surprise here. Republicans had casually targeted four long-serving Democratic senators in these states - Tom Harkin in Iowa, John Kerry in Massachusetts, Carl Levin in Michigan, and Max Baucus in Montana. They've come up with no competitive races out of the four. Virginia (OPEN-R): Virginia's race, however, was considered at least somewhat competitive for a long time. However, for the past month, Swing State Project has ranked this race as "Safe Democratic", and frankly, it is difficult to disagree with their analysis. Pollster's average puts Democratic candidate Mark Warner's edge at a whopping 25 points. This is a margin every bit as wide as many seasoned incumbents have against no-hoper candidates (like Kerry in Massachusetts, or Levin in Michigan, or Jeff Sessions in Alabama). Governor Warner enjoyed a cash-on-hand advantage of nearly $5 million at the end of the second quarter over his Republican rival, Jim Gilmore. Absent some kind of horrendous scandal, there's no way Gilmore will have the resources to catch Warner. New Jersey (Lautenberg - D incumbent): This remains a "race to watch", but it appears that incumbent Democratic Senator Frank R. Lautenberg has taken command of New Jersey's Senate race. Pollster's average indicates a 13-point lead for the four-term Senator, a margin larger than any of the margins of victory in his previous elections. New Jersey polling can be notoriously deceptive, but Lautenberg's advantage - and proven electoral viability - work strongly in his favor. New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, largely thanks to Lautenberg. The GOP has also nominated much, much stronger candidates than current nominee Dick Zimmer, whose last major race was his 1996 Senate loss to Robert Torricelli. Finally, Lautenberg sported a 3-1 cash advantage over Zimmer at last filing. It's difficult to see Zimmer, a candidate with limited appeal and resources - finding a way to beat Lautenberg. Likely Democratic Alaska (Stevens - R incumbent): At this point, the only thing that can save indicted Alaska Republican Ted Stevens is an acquittal at his September 24 trial. Orange to Blue candidate Mark Begich, the Democratic Mayor of Anchorage, now sports an impressive 18-point lead over Stevens, per Pollster's average. His leads over Stevens' primary opponents are even wider, and since April, Begich has been outraising Stevens quite substantially. It's unlikely that Stevens will lose his primary, and almost certain that he will not remove his name from the ballot if he wins (thus enabling the GOP to nominate a potentially stronger candidate). I do not expect Stevens' reelect numbers to remain mired in the thirties, as they are now. Still, Begich has evidently taken control of this race, and he is sufficiently popular in his own right that he should be able to maintain his advantage over the coming months. Stevens is an Alaska institution and a 40-yar incumbent, but an outright acquittal may be the only thing to save his bacon. And even an acquittal may not be enough. New Mexico (OPEN - R): The last poll on this race was the closest we've seen pretty much all cycle, and even that poll showed Democrat Tom Udall with a double-digit lead (with leaners excluded) over Republican Steve Pearce. That poll, by Rasmussen, may well be an outlier. Even if it is not, Udall still enjoys a healthy 15-point lead via Pollster's average, and has a large cash advantage - nearly $3 million at the end of Q2, to Pearce's $500K. Udall has been hit by a series of negative ads lately, both from Pearce's campaign, and the notorious right-wing nutjobs at the Club for Growth. So there's some reason to expect that Rasmussen's latest poll, even if it is not dead-on, speaks to a tightening race.  But whether or not the race is tightening - and there's no reason to expect it wouldn't, at some point - there's no good reason yet to remove this race from the "Likely Democratic" column. Leans Democratic New Hampshire (Sununu - R incumbent): Save for one poll in December 2007 (an ARG poll, at that), Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen has led in every single poll commissioned since before she entered the race against Republican Sen. John Sununu. Shaheen has frequently enjoyed a double-digit lead, with the incumbent Sununu consistently mired at or below 45% reelect - obviously terrible numbers for an incumbent. Indeed, Pollster's average shows Shaheen leading by nearly eleven points. So why is the race "Leans Democratic" and not "Likely?" First, Sununu enjoyed a cash advantage of nearly $3 million as of last filing. Second, one can expect third-party organizations to target this race hard, including the NRSC if they have the resources. Sununu is a very good vote for the GOP considering he hails from a slightly Democratic-leaning state, and they'll be eager to keep him around. Third, New Hampshire is a difficult state to poll, and there's some reason to believe the race might be closer than the polling average indicates. Most of the polls showing Shaheen with a huge lead come from either Rasmussen, or the unreliable ARG. Nevertheless, Sununu's inability to climb above 45%, as an incumbent, is a clear indicator that the race leans Shaheen's way. Louisiana (Landrieu - D incumbent): This is, and has been, the hottest race featuring a Democratic incumbent for the entire cycle. Sen. Mary Landrieu has generally earned favorable marks in an increasingly Republican state, but she has won two Senate elections by the very skin of her teeth, and seems to be perpetually endangered. Republicans were initially excited about their recruit, former Democratic State Treasurer John Kennedy, who ran as a Democrat for the Senate in 2004. Several polls favorable for Kennedy indicated that he would have a strong chance against Landrieu (though only Zogby's dubious polling ever gave Kennedy a lead). In Rasmussen's latest poll, however, Landrieu has opened up a substantial lead, 56% to 39%. This is perhaps due to a series of excellent anti-Kennedy ads from the Landrieu campaign, such as this one, and this one. That's one poll, of course, and it may well be an outlier. However, this race would have been considered "Leans Democratic" even prior to this latest poll. Landrieu has maintained a polling edge over Kennedy through the race, and had $3 million more to spend at last filing. If the latest polling result is confirmed, it may merit moving this race up. If it isn't, LA-Sen should stay right where it is. Colorado (OPEN-R): There's little to report in Colorado's Senate race, frankly. Polling has been remarkably consistent so far, giving Democrat Mark Udall a significant, if not overwhelming lead, anywhere from three to ten points but usually around six points. Pollster's average pegs the race at Udall 47%, Schaffer 41%. That dovetails pretty well with the ranking of "Leans Democratic". Udall would win the race if it were held today, but nothing is certain for November. Republican candidate Bob Schaffer has been mired in every kind of scandal imaginable since the beginning of the race. Schaffer is an old Abramoff pal, and a business associate of a felon convicted of defrauding the government. He's managed to weather them all pretty well, up to this point. We'll see if Udall gets any bounce from the Democratic convention, which will obviously be held in his state of Colorado. Leans Republican Mississippi (Wicker-R incumbent): This race could have been considered a tossup until fairly recently; most of the polling on the race indicated a dead heat, with Wicker and Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove trading statistically insignificant leads. Rasmussen's last two polls, with leaners included, have given a nine-point edge to the Republican incumbent. The race is much closer without leaners included, and the last non-Rasmussen poll - a Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos, taken roughly a month ago - showed a deadlock at Wicker 45%, Musgrove 44%. Wicker's got the money advantage, although as Mississippi is a relatively cheap state in which to advertise, third-party spending from the DSCC or other groups could be a major factor here. Due to a few factors - the DSCC's cash edge over the NRSC, the prospect of unprecedented black turnout in Mississippi due to Obama's candidacy, and Musgrove's superior abilities on the stump - I'm still optimistic about this race. Swing State Project's James L. is not as sanguine as I am, writing: I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer here, but Musgrove has some serious challenges -- most seriously, a recent guilty plea from a business executive who admitted that he attempted to bribe Musgrove with a $25,000 campaign contribution in connection to a failed beef plant project -- an unsuccessful business venture that left Mississippi taxpayers carrying the tab in 2003. Now, there's no evidence of any wrongdoing on Musgrove's part, but this is clearly the type of smoke and mirrors game that the GOP will love to exploit. I'm not saying that this race is undoable, but it's going to take an extraordinary amount of sweat. It's difficult to argue with that analysis, but I'd still place the race as "Leans Republican", and slightly ahead of similarly tiered races in North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota. North Carolina (Dole-R incumbent): The recent trend in this state has been strongly in favor of Democratic challenger Kay Hagan, as she seeks to take out incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole. Three successive polls have put the race within five points, after a June advertising blitz jumped Dole's numbers significantly. Dole has been hit by several third-party ads of late, including the DSCC's masterful "Rocking Chairs" ad. Meanwhile, Hagan is up on the air with her own ads, both of them positive ads aimed at raising her profile and favorability statewide. The worst news for Dole, however, is that she can't count on the NRSC to save her bacon. After reserving $6 million in ad time across the state, the NRSC wound up dropping that reservation, and it appears that Dole will have to fend largely for herself in this race (even as the DSCC strongly backs Hagan). Dole has proven to be a largely ineffective Senator, and as 2006 NRSC chair she was generally useless as a fundraiser and strategist. The NRSC leaving her to her own devices is awfully bad news for the Senator. Oregon (Smith-R incumbent): This race has been "Lean Republican" for quite some time. Democratic candidate Jeff Merkley is steadily gaining on Republican incumbent Gordon Smith, with Pollster's average pegging the race at 49% for Smith, 42% for Merkley. Merkley's campaign has really rounded into form over the last several months, with Merkley enjoying a truly impressive fundraising quarter in Q@, when he outraised Smith. While Merkley still trails by single digits, the recent strength of his campaign and Oregon's Democratic tilt give him a reasonable shot at knocking off the incumbent. Minnesota (Coleman-R incumbent): After a few rough months, DFL candidate Al Franken's campaign has shown recent signs of life, with Pollster now giving Republican incumbent Norm Coleman a six-point edge. Franken's recent campaign staff shakeup has resulted in a harder-edged campaign, with his most recent ads going on the offensive against Coleman. Coleman's own recent ethical problems have also served to bring his numbers down somewhat. Coleman is still an exceptionally canny politician and fundraiser, as well as a first-class fundraiser. Still, with recent trends favoring the Democrat, and the polling relatively close, this race should remain "Leans Republican". Likely Republican Maine (Collins-R incumbent): This has always been a difficult slog for Democrat Tom Allen, as he faces one of the Senates most popular Republicans in incumbent Susan Collins. Initially, many hoped that Maine's blue tint would be enough to carry the day for Allen, as it helped Sheldon Whitehouse defeat well-liked incumbent Lincoln Chafee in 2006. This hasn't proven to be the case. Allen had made steady, if slow, progress in polling results until recently, but as Pollster indicates, his numbers seem to have flatlined in the low-to-mid 40s, with Collins' own numbers consistently in the low-to-mid 50s. There's still time for Allen to catch up, and the DSCC has reserved fully $5 million of ad time in the state, indicating their belief in Allen and their commitment to the race. Allen himself is on the air with a strong initial ad, and that should help his numbers somewhat (there has been no polling since Allen's ad went up). Kentucky (McConnell-R incumbent): Kentucky is the first in a troika of "Likely Republican" races (along with Georgia and Oklahoma) that all bear some similarity to each other. Each race is in a Republican-leaning state (albeit to different degrees in each case), featuring a supreme Republican villain facing a surprisingly strong Democratic challenger. In this case, the villain is none other than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Democrat Bruce Lunsford has run a strong race, but is still something of the David in this race to McConnell's Goliath (despite Lunsford's formidable financial resources). McConnell, one of the best fundraisers the GOP has, has a war chest fit for a small country, and sports a consistent 10-12 point polling lead. McConnell is also one of the canniest and most ruthless GOP Senators out there, making a difficult battle for Lunsford. Still, Lunsford's wealth and aggressive campaign put this race slightly ahead of Georgia and Oklahoma. Georgia (Chambliss-R incumbent): This race is firmly on the radar for the first time all cycle, as not only have Democrats nominated their strongest candidate in former state legislator Jim Martin, but two successive polls have come out showing Martin trailing incumbent Saxby Chambliss by single digits. Chambliss has considerable advantages in the race - he is reasonably popular in Georgia, though not overwhelmingly so, and he has vast financial resources with which to hammer Martin over the next two months. Still, the numbers indicate that this is a competitive race right now, and Martin's own fundraising has been quite respectable considering that he got into the race very late. In addition, the DSCC is evidently watching this race, and should be able to help Martin out on the financial end, should he remain competitive. OK-Sen (Inhofe-R incumbent): Few states are more inhospitable to Democrats than Oklahoma. Fortunately, few young candidates are as impressive as Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice, and few incumbent Senators are as thoroughly ridiculous and unpleasant as Republican Sen. James Inhofe. Rice started this race as a serious underdog, but his strong campaign has pulled the previously little-known state Senator to within single digits of 14-year incumbent Inhofe, according to a poll commissioned by the DSCC. Inhofe still has a considerable cash advantage, not to mention a name recognition advantage. And a nine-point polling deficit with two months to go is not insignificant. However, if that poll is accurate - and there's little reason to suggest it isn't, as the DSCC's previous polling was directly in line with independent polling done around the same time - Rice has a fighting chance to be the first Democratic senator from Oklahoma since David Boren retired. Races To Watch Idaho (OPEN-R): The most recent poll on this race, by Research 2000 for Daily Kos, gave Republican Jim Risch a mere 10-point advantage over Democrat Larry LaRocco. If another poll comes out confirming the previous result, it will justify moving this race to "Likely Republican". Idaho has traditional been uber-Republican territory; Bush pulled 69% of the vote there in 2006. LaRocco was the last Democrat elected to Congress from the state, when he served as the First District's Representative from 1991 to 1995. LaRocco has faced Risch twice before, having lost badly in 2006 in the Lieutenant Governor's race. However, Risch has to deal with a very well-funded independent challenge from the right in the person of wealthy rancher Rex Rammell. If he is in fact leading by only 10, with just 42% of the vote, LaRocco may have a chance at a shocking upset. Texas (Cornyn-R incumbent): Orange to Blue candidate Rick Noriega has stayed relatively close in polling to Republican Sen. John Cornyn, a certain and unmistakable indicator of Cornyn's vulnerability. Noriega's problem is fundraising; he reported less than $1 million in the bank as of Q2 filings, in one of the most expensive states in the country in which to advertise. Cornyn sports nearly ten times the cash that Noriega has, enough money to bury him going forward. Cornyn's seeming inability to climb above 50% in polling keep this on the list of races to watch. Nebraska (OPEN-R): Democratic candidate Scott Kleeb has proven an excellent fundraiser, outraising former Governor Mike Johanns, his Republican opponent, in the second quarter. Kleeb is a personally appealing candidate as well, on several levels; he proved his political skill in 2006 when he ran a highly competitive race in Nebraska's Third District, one of the reddest in the nation. Kleeb's problem is Johanns' popularity in Nebraska. Johanns maintains a significant polling edge - he has pulled 55% to 60% in every poll on the race so far, while Kleeb has topped out at 40% and generally been mired in the low 30s. Kansas: For a while, it seemed as though this might provide a solid flanking race for the party, as Democrat Jim Slattery was consistently polling within 10-12 points of Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. Unfortunately, Roberts has regained momentum, having hammered Slattery in TV ads running statewide, and now polls roughly 20 points ahead of Slattery on average. Slattery's fundraising has been quite good, but he's got a tough hill to climb.

As expected, Republicans didn't waste a moment before launching the full concern troll attack on Obama's selection of a running mate. No matter who was chosen, they would have professed concern that they know much better than Democrats who the Democratic nominees should have been...

Ardent backer of Clinton in the primary says, 'MSNBC was the official network of the Obama campaign."

PARIS - France on Sunday called for a meeting of European leaders on Sept. 1 to discuss the crisis in Georgia and the European Union's relations with Russia...

People worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers' Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S...

Ted Kennedy has a "better than 50 percent" chance of making a surprise appearance at the DNC.

McCain has another home?

NBC's Tom Brokaw talked with Chuck Todd about John McCain not knowing how many houses he and his wife owned. Brokaw point out that one viewer thought that McCain should be given a pass on the mistake because of his prisoner of war status...

McCain's new ad asks: Why not Hillary?

As expected, Republicans didn't waste a moment before launching the full concern troll attack on Obama's selection of a running mate. No matter who was chosen, they would have professed concern that they know much better than Democrats who the Democratic nominees should have been. In this case the goal is to sow discord among Democrats by riling supporters of Hillary Clinton. Here's Rudy Giuliani concern trolling this morning on ABC: "You almost have to go to extraordinary lengths to avoid [Clinton] as the vice presidential pick of the party." How touching that Republicans care to interfere offer us advice. McCain is so concerned that the Democratic ticket isn't as strong as he'd like that he spent his own money on an attack ad to make the case belatedly for Clinton. McCain even claims to know Obama's thinking in the matter. Surprising for a man so confused he can't even remember how many homes he owns, that McCain has such precise insight into his rival's thoughts. Ad's narrator: "She won millions of votes - but isn't on his ticket. Why? For speaking the truth, on his plans...The truth hurt, and Obama didn't like it." Actually, as David Axelrod explained this morning, the reason Obama made the choice he did is that "he felt Senator Biden would be the best fit for him". Odd that the McCain campaign didn't bother to ask first what basis the Democrat had used. Even odder that Republicans are so concerned about helping to improve the Democratic ticket. And oddest of all in that the ad ascribes Truth to whatever opinions Hillary Clinton expressed about her rivals for the presidency. Because Clinton is highly critical of McCain: Clinton’s team immediately dubbed the ad misleading. "Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is pretty clear,” said Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand. “She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad." I guess we're all deeply concerned about the research and writing skills of the Republican attack machine. At some other time in the future, maybe, we can suggest the people they ought to have hired instead of the bums they've got. For now, why don't we content ourselves with helping the GOP to select John McCain's running mate?

Obama and Biden unveil their campaign theme song.

This'll be a short one today: most of the Daily Kos contributing editors are on their way to Denver as we speak, to take part in Big Tent activities. Oh, and maybe visit the actual convention, if there's time, but from the way things are looking the Big Tent's going to be the place to be.

• This is hilarious. I love it, because Kristol's not even trying to mask his concern trollery, and the end result is just a lumpy mess of Suck. The Democrats have a problem with a "Glass Ceiling", because Obama didn't pick Clinton? Excuse me, but were you watching the Republican debates?
• Give it up, McCain. It's getting creepy to watch.
• No, seriously -- give it up. When you've lost Maureen Dowd, you've lost everyone.
• The wingnut campaign to find something at the Democratic convention to get freaked out about has one of its first entries. Scary imaginary flag desecration!

That's all I got. Open thread time.

I am en route to Denver to blog the convention all week. Starting tomorrow, at LiberalOasis and at OurFuture.org look for live video streams through most of the day, spontaneous interviews, regular Twittering and coverage of Take Back America.

Cheney has helped corrupt politicians before. I know, because I reported it two years ago.

Some of the participants at a recent retreat of central bank governors and economists charged that the Fed did too much to help Wall Street and too little to aid taxpayers...

Pundit musings about any convention bounce are completely nonsensical this year. The schedule and calendar of the 2008 presidential campaign has no modern parallel, so in turn, looking at past convention impacts on polling won't provide accurate historical context. Traditionally, conventions are in the heart of summer, before the general election campaign has been fully joined. Nominees usually get four days of puff press that serves to introduce themselves to a wide portion of the electorate, which temporarily gooses poll numbers to varying degrees. This year is completely different. With back-to-back conventions scheduled at the very end of summer, the campaigns had little incentive to wait before attacking. Obama and McCain have been jabbing at each other all summer. Negative attack lines towards both are already well established (though will surely be honed further.) Four days of puff press can't detox what has already been injected into the bloodstream. And puff press shouldn't even be expected, since rival campaigns have dropped the traditional courtesy of holding fire during conventions. Futhermore, since the conventions are back-to-back, there won't even be a window for professionally-executed polling to occur following Obama's acceptance speech (though expect some shoddy quickie polls). We'll only get some remotely accurate polling after both conventions are finished. What I do expect, following a very mild tightening in the polls in recent days, is a return to what we've generally seen all summer (and what we see in today's ABC/W. Post poll): Obama in the upper 40s, McCain in the lower 40s. That merely reflects where the nation is ideologically right now. If we start seeing Obama consistently break 50 after both conventions, that would be a better-than-expected success, an indication that Obama was successfully assuring undecided voters he can deliver on the change the majority of country wants to see. If we start seeing McCain consistently break 45 after both conventions, that would indicate McCain was having success sowing doubt about Obama among undecideds, which would likely make this a very close race to the finish. But any poll movement should not be described as a "bounce" following a one-sided presentation. After back-to-back conventions, poll movement would reflect the impact on the electorate following the first major clash of the campaign.

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces freed a cameraman for the Associated Press in Baghdad on Saturday after holding him for three months without charge, the news agency said...

Pelosi open to offshore drilling if Bush can 'prove' we need it